Lukas Partners supports Creighton University Economics professor Ernie Goss, Ph.D., to create and distribute a monthly video that summarizes his Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a survey of supply managers in the nine-state Midwestern region that stretches from Minnesota to Arkansas.
You can view Dr. Goss’ January recap video at: https://bit.ly/MidAmericaBCIJanuary2022
The January Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index plummeted from December due to job losses the region hasn’t seen since June 2020, according to Dr. Goss. Both the U.S. and regional economies are struggling to regain jobs that have been lost since the pandemic began. In the Mid-America region, North Dakota experienced significant job losses in January while Nebraska and Arkansas lost the least amount of jobs.
In regard to the manufacturing sector, ongoing labor shortages, supply chain bottlenecks and a decrease in imports and exports have slowed deliveries, which could result in higher prices for consumers.
Anticipated interest rate hikes also will impact consumers. According to Dr. Goss, the Federal Reserve may increase inflation before its next meeting in mid-March, which will drive up short-term and long-term interest rates. Dr. Goss says mortgage rates could worsen if the 10-year Treasury yield moves above 2%, which he expects will happen in the second half of 2022. In the months ahead, he believes global inflation will increase and that it could be two to three years before it comes back down.
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